AbbVie

PharmaVitae explores AbbVie’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29.

Snapshot

• Overview – Declines in AbbVie’s flagship product Humira due to biosimilar competition will be offset by the company’s robust portfolio of launch drugs.
• Key themes – [1] Biosimilar launches in Europe and other international markets have negatively impacted Humira’s growth, but the brand could grow in 2020 and should have revenue stability until US biosimilar launches in 2023 [2] AbbVie will see tremendous growth from Imbruvica, Skyrizi, Rinvoq, and Venclexta [3] Acquisition of Allergan, poised to close in 2020, will further diversify AbbVie’s revenues.

Model updates (3 August 2020)

• Abicipar pegol forecast removed due to CRL in the US and the withdrawal of regulatory filings in Europe and Japan
• Humira forecast adjusted higher in the US due to updated guidance from ABBV
• Rinvoq forecast adjusted higher in the US due to strong launch trends
• Botox forecast adjusted lower globally due to impact from COVID-19
• Juvederm forecast adjusted lower globally due to impact from COVID-19
• Veliparib forecast adjusted lower due to a pushout of estimated approval date.

Model updates (20 May 2020)

• Humira forecast adjusted lower in the US due to changes in reimbursement mix and lower new patient starts
• Mavyret forecast adjusted lower due to market dynamics in HCV
• Added Allergan drugs to AbbVie forecast due to closing of merger, including:

– Botox

– Restasis

– Vraylar

– Juvederm

– Linzess

– Lumigan

– Bystolic

– Alphagan

– Lo Loestrin

– AlloDerm

– Ozurdex

– Viibryd.

Model updates (25 February 2020)

• Humira forecast adjusted higher due to stronger US trends only partially offset by continued biosimilar impact internationally
• Skyrizi forecast adjusted higher due to strong initial launch in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis
• Rinvoq forecast adjusted lower in the near-term due to launch trend in moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis
• Imbruvica forecast adjusted higher due to continued share gains in all lines of therapy in chronic lymphocytic leukemia and all approved indications
• Venclexta forecast adjusted lower due to improved forecast for Imbruvica and market trends in chronic lymphocytic leukemia
• Mavyret forecast adjusted lower due to lower treated patient volumes and increased competition in the US
• Orilissa forecast adjusted higher due to contribution from potential uterine fibroids label expansion
• Veliparib forecast pushed out to align with timeline for regulatory submission
• Navitoclax forecast added
• ABBV-951 forecast added.

Model updates (8 November 2019)

• Humira forecast adjusted lower internationally due to continued biosimilar impact
• Skyrizi forecast adjusted higher due to robust launch in the US; international forecast adjusted lower due to slower launch in the five major EU markets and Rest of World
• Upadacitinib name changed to Rinvoq
• Imbruvica forecast adjusted higher globally due to recent inflection in market share in first-line CLL.

Model updates (29 July 2019)

• Humira sales adjusted lower due to size of biosimilar impact in the five major EU markets and Rest of World regions
• Skyrizi sales adjusted higher due to pace of product launch
• Mavyret sales adjusted significantly lower due to declining markets and pricing pressure in international geographies
• Orilissa sales adjusted lower due to slower initial product ramp
• Rova-T forecast removed due to disappointing safety and efficacy data from Phase II TRINITY study
• Upadacitinib launch forecast updated
• Atrasentan forecast removed.