Acorda Company Analysis
PharmaVitae explores Acorda’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook, encompassing corporate strategy, marketed portfolio, pipeline potential, and financial performance over 2016–26.
- Overview – Acorda presents a likely takeover target with a single forecasted revenue growth driver beyond July 2018 in the form of Inbrija; an attractive early-stage asset in CVT-427; and its promising proprietary ARCUS pulmonary delivery platform technology.
- Out to 2021 – After dropping to $312m in 2019 owing to generic competition for Ampyra in multiple sclerosis, total product sales will recover to reach $475m in 2021 due to fast uptake of Inbrija.
- Out to 2026 – The launch of Inbrija in Parkinson’s disease will drive total product revenue to $860m by 2026.
- Pipeline – Inbrija represents Acorda’s only active investigational drug, with clinical development of its next most exciting pipeline asset, CVT-427 for migraine, on hold to focus resources on the Inbrija launch.
- Lifecycle – Acorda’s prolonged and expensive defense of Ampyra’s intellectual property is likely to ultimately fail.
- Events – Tozadenant clinical development in Parkinson’s disease discontinued; SYN120 failed Phase II proof-of-concept study in Parkinson’s disease dementia; Inbrija launch expected in the US and EU in Q4 2018 and Q2 2019, respectively; Ampyra patent ruling to allow generic market entry in July 2018.
- Acorda’s total product revenues will dip to $312m in 2019 owing to generic erosion of Ampyra sales from July 2018, but will then grow to $860m by 2026 with fast uptake of Inbrija.
- Q3 2017: Acorda performed below expectations during the quarter, recording only 3% year-on-year net revenue growth to $133m for its flagship product, Ampyra for multiple sclerosis, which accounted for 99% of Acorda’s total product sales in 2016.
- PharmaVitae expects Ampyra sales to peak at $541m in 2017.
- Tozadenant’s clinical development in Parkinson’s disease has been discontinued.
- SYN120 failed to meet its primary and key secondary endpoints in a Phase II proof-of-concept study in Parkinson’s disease dementia.
- Acorda’s late-stage investigational adjunctive treatment for symptoms of “off” periods in Parkinson’s disease, Inbrija, is its only forecasted sales driver beyond July 2018.
- Inbrija will launch in the US and EU in Q4 2018 and Q2 2019, respectively, and will return Acorda to growth in 2020.
- Clinical development of CVT-427 for acute migraine treatment is on hold while resources are focused on the Inbrija launch.
- Acorda will face significant pressure to put the company up for sale in 2018, as its sole forecasted revenue driver beyond July 2018 is Inbrija.
- Removed tozadenant.
- Delayed Inbrija US launch from Q2 2018 to Q4 2018.
- Delayed Inbrija EU and RoW launches from Q4 2018 to Q2 2019.
- Adjusted Inbrija US sales.
- Adjusted Inbrija EU and RoW sales.
Explore and visualize revenue dynamics in Acorda’s portfolio out to 2026 using 10-year in-house sales forecasts segmented by the following sections.
- How is Acorda strategically poised out to 2026?
- What are Acorda’s key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats?
- What are Acorda’s key catalysts?
Facts and figures
- What is Acorda’s forecasted sales performance out to 2026?
- What is the revenue trajectory of Acorda’s current top products out to 2026?
- Which therapy areas will experience the largest growth and decline?
- What are the portfolio weightings of Acorda based on the lifecycle of its products?
Key therapy areas
- Why will specific therapy areas experience the largest growth and decline?
- What are the detailed competitive dynamics at play in Acorda’s important therapeutic markets?
- How is Acorda adapting strategically to internal and external headwinds?
TABLE OF CONTENTS
5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
8 Q3 2017
8 Under-pressure Acorda forced to focus on most de-risked pipeline asset
9 What were the highlights from Acorda’s Q3 2017 earnings call?
10 Regulatory update
10 Clinical data update
10 H1 2018 catalysts
12 STRATEGIC ANALYSIS
12 Restructuring in the face of Ampyra generic competition
12 Acorda’s future hinges on a successful launch of Inbrija
12 Semi-successful acquisitions
12 ARCUS platform technology
13 Acorda cannot afford distractions
13 Long-term outlook
13 Will Acorda be an M&A target in 2018, and for who?
13 What price for Acorda?
13 Recent M&A activity in neurology
14 Approaching the precipice of an undefined sales cliff does not constitute ideal selling conditions
14 Acorda’s SWOT analysis
15 Acorda’s key events and catalysts
17 PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
19 Q3 2017
20 Q2 2017
22 FACTS AND FIGURES
22 Acorda’s prescription pharma sales outlook
22 Acorda’s regional pharma sales outlook
24 Acorda’s therapy area dynamics
26 Acorda’s key therapy area forecasts
28 Acorda’s top products over 2016–26
28 Acorda’s growth drivers and resistors
30 Acorda’s portfolio lifecycle analysis
32 Acorda’s pipeline analysis
34 Acorda’s M&A strategy and history
LIST OF FIGURES
22 Figure 1: Acorda’s prescription pharmaceutical sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2013–26
24 Figure 2: Acorda’s therapy area dynamics, 2016–26
28 Figure 3: Acorda’s current top products sales ($m), 2016–26
30 Figure 4: Acorda’s launch/core/expiry portfolio configuration, 2016–26
LIST OF TABLES
18 Table 1: Acorda’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2016–26
23 Table 2: Acorda’s prescription pharmaceutical sales by region ($m), 2016–26
25 Table 3: Acorda’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2016–26
27 Table 4: Acorda’s central nervous system portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2016–26
29 Table 5: Acorda’s key products, 2016–26
31 Table 6: Acorda’s sales by launch, core, and expiry portfolio ($m), 2016–26
33 Table 7: Acorda’s launch portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2016–26
35 Table 8: Acorda’s key merger and acquisition deals, 2012–17
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