Acorda Company Analysis
Acorda Company Analysis
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PharmaVitae explores Acorda’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2017–27.
- Description
- Contents
PharmaVitae explores Acorda’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2017–27. PharmaVitae analyses include quarterly earnings coverage and provide timely updates to company product forecasts. The full company profile encompasses analysis on corporate strategy, portfolio analysis, pipeline potential, and financial performance.
Snapshot
- Overview – Acorda presents an attractive takeover target in 2018 with its streamlined CNS portfolio, including the company’s single forecasted revenue growth driver beyond July 2018 in Inbrija for Parkinson’s disease, potentially lucrative early-stage asset in CVT-427 for migraine, and promising proprietary ARCUS pulmonary delivery platform technology.
- Key themes – [1] Acorda’s total product revenue is set to dip to $300m in 2019 owing to generic erosion of Ampyra sales from July 2018, but then grow to $941m in 2027 due to fast uptake of Inbrija [2] Acorda’s late-stage investigational adjunctive treatment for symptoms of “off” periods in Parkinson’s disease, Inbrija, is its only forecasted sales driver beyond July 2018; clinical development of CVT-427 for acute migraine treatment is on hold while resources are focused on the Inbrija launch [3]Acorda will face significant pressure to put the company up for sale during 2018 due its sole forecasted revenue driver beyond July 2018.
- Q4 2017 – M&A is the key theme for Acorda, with multiple potentially interested neurology-focused players, including Biogen, UCB, AbbVie, Mitsubishi Tanabe, and Roche.
- Out to 2022 – After dropping to $300m in 2019 owing to generic competition for Ampyra in multiple sclerosis, total prescription pharmaceutical product sales are set to recover to reach $634m in 2022 due to fast uptake of Inbrija.
- Out to 2027 – Inbrija’s launch in Parkinson’s disease is set to drive total product revenue to $941m in 2027.
- Pipeline – Inbrija is Acorda’s only active investigational drug, with clinical development of its next most exciting pipeline asset, CVT-427 for migraine, on hold to focus resources on Inbrija’s US launch.
- Lifecycle – Acorda’s prolonged and expensive defense of Ampyra’s intellectual property is highly likely to ultimately fail, leaving all forecasted revenue beyond July 2018 in the company’s launch product Inbrija.
- Events – Tozadenant clinical development in Parkinson’s disease discontinued; SYN120 failed Phase II proof-of-concept study in Parkinson’s disease dementia; Inbrija launch expected in the US and EU in Q4 2018 and Q2 2019, respectively; Ampyra patent ruling to allow generic market entry in July 2018.
Model updates
- Inbrija sales adjusted upwards.
- Zanaflex removed.
Analysis structure
Explore and visualize revenue dynamics in Acorda’s portfolio out to 2027 using 10-year in-house sales forecasts segmented by the following sections.
Quarterly review
- What were the major highlights from Acorda’s latest earnings call and quarterly performance?
Strategy analysis
- How is Acorda strategically poised out to 2027?
- What are Acorda’s key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats?
- What are Acorda’s key catalysts during the current year?
Portfolio analysis
- Why will specific therapy areas experience the largest growth and decline?
- What are the detailed competitive dynamics at play in Acorda’s important therapeutic markets?
- How is Acorda adapting strategically to internal and external headwinds in preceding quarters?
Facts and figures
- What is Acorda’s forecasted sales performance out to 2027?
- What is the revenue trajectory of Acorda’s current top products out to 2027?
- Which therapy areas will experience the largest growth and decline?
- What are the portfolio weightings of Acorda based on the lifecycle of its products?
TABLE OF CONTENTS
5 OVERVIEW
5 Snapshot
5 Model updates
5 Analysis structure
7 Q4 2017 REVIEW
7 Acorda’s future hinges on the commercial success of a single late-stage adjunctive treatment for Parkinson’s disease
10 Q3 2017 REVIEW
10 Under-pressure Acorda forced to focus on most de-risked pipeline asset
14 STRATEGY ANALYSIS
14 Restructuring in the face of Ampyra generic competition
14 Acorda’s future hinges on a successful launch of Inbrija
14 Semi-successful acquisitions
14 ARCUS platform technology
15 Acorda cannot afford distractions
15 Long-term outlook
15 Will Acorda be an M&A target in 2018, and for who?
15 What price for Acorda?
16 Approaching the precipice of an undefined sales cliff does not constitute ideal selling conditions
16 Acorda’s SWOT analysis
17 Acorda’s key events and catalysts
19 PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
21 Q4 2017
22 Q3 2017
22 Q2 2017
24 FACTS AND FIGURES
24 Acorda’s prescription pharma sales outlook
24 Acorda’s regional pharma sales outlook
26 Acorda’s therapy area dynamics
30 Acorda’s growth drivers and resistors
32 Acorda’s lifecycle analysis
34 Acorda’s M&A strategy and history
37 BIBLIOGRAPHY
LIST OF FIGURES
24 Figure 1: Acorda’s prescription pharmaceutical sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2014–27
26 Figure 2: Acorda’s therapy area dynamics, 2017–27
32 Figure 3: Acorda’s launch/core/expiry portfolio configuration, 2017–27
LIST OF TABLES
20 Table 1: Acorda’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2017–27
25 Table 2: Acorda’s prescription pharmaceutical sales by region ($m), 2017–27
27 Table 3: Acorda’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2017–27
29 Table 4: Acorda’s central nervous system portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27
31 Table 5: Acorda’s key products, 2017–27
33 Table 6: Acorda’s sales by launch, core, and expiry portfolio ($m), 2017–27
35 Table 7: Acorda’s key merger and acquisition deals, 2012–18
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