Celgene
Celgene
$3,000.00
PharmaVitae explores Celgene’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook, encompassing corporate strategy, marketed portfolio, pipeline potential, and financial performance over 2017–27.
Publisher: Datamonitor Healthcare
- Description
- Contents
- Samples
PharmaVitae explores Celgene’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2017–27. PharmaVitae analyses include quarterly earnings coverage and provide timely updates to company product forecasts. The full company profile encompasses analysis on corporate strategy, portfolio analysis, pipeline potential, and financial performance.
Snapshot
- Overview – Celgene is set to experience a 1.3% CAGR during 2017–27 as its I&I products grow to offset strong generic headwinds to its oncology portfolio from 2022.
- Key themes – [1] Revlimid will drive strong mid-term growth of Celgene’s oncology portfolio, reaching $12.2bn in sales in 2022 [2] Celgene’s I&I portfolio will continue to make progress, becoming the company’s fastest-growing therapy area despite recent setbacks to I&I products [3] Celgene faces a severe patent cliff beginning in 2022, with generic launches for Revlimid, Abraxane, and Pomalyst set to erode $8.9bn from the company’s peak expiry portfolio revenue [4] Celgene’s outlook hinges on the success of its launch portfolio, which PharmaVitae forecasts to add $5.6bn in new sales by 2027 and to fully offset the company’s declining expiry portfolio revenue.
- Out to 2022 – Over 2017–22, Celgene will experience an 8.6% CAGR, driven by blockbusters Revlimid, Pomalyst, and Otezla.
- Out to 2027 – Sales will peak in 2023 at $20.5bn before declining severely with the launches of Revlimid, Abraxane, and Pomalyst generics. However, product revenue will grow at a CAGR of 1.3% over the forecast period as a whole.
- Pipeline – Celgene’s launch products will add $5.6bn in revenue out to 2027, offsetting losses from the company’s expiry portfolio. Additionally, significant potential value lies in the company’s key pipeline assets, including bb2121, lisocabtagene maraleucel, and BGB-A317.
- Lifecycle – Celgene faces a severe patent cliff in 2022, with expiry product revenue set to fall by over $8.9bn during 2022–27 due to losses of exclusivity for Revlimid, Abraxane, and Pomalyst. The company’s mid-term outlook hinges on its success in preventing early entry of Revlimid generics. Celgene continues to follow an aggressive deal-making strategy to supplement its pipeline and fill the revenue void expected from Revlimid’s patent expiry.
- Major events – Acquisitions of Juno and Impact; FDA issued refuse to file letter for ozanimod in multiple sclerosis; positive pivotal trial readouts for luspatercept; key catalysts expected in H2 2018 for pipeline drugs bb2121 and lisocabtagene maraleucel.
Model updates
- Upgraded Revlimid forecast.
- Upgraded Pomalyst forecast.
- Early generic entry for Abraxane in Q1 2022 in Europe.
- Ozanimod’s launch in relapsing multiple sclerosis delayed to Q1 2020.
Analysis structure
Explore and visualize revenue dynamics in Celgene’s portfolio out to 2027 using 10-year in-house sales forecasts segmented by the following sections.
Quarterly review
- What were the major highlights from Celgene’s latest earnings call and quarterly performance?
Company context
- How is Celgene strategically poised out to 2027?
- What are Celgene’s key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats?
- What are Celgene’s key catalysts during the current year?
Facts and figures
- What is Celgene’s forecasted sales performance out to 2027?
- What is the revenue trajectory of Celgene’s current top 10 products out to 2027?
- Which therapy areas will experience the largest growth and decline?
- What are the portfolio weightings of Celgene based on the lifecycle of its products?
Portfolio analysis
- Why will specific therapy areas experience the largest growth and decline?
- What are the detailed competitive dynamics at play in Celgene’s important therapeutic markets?
- How is Celgene adapting strategically to internal and external headwinds?
Table of Contents
6 OVERVIEW
6 Snapshot
6 Model updates
7 Analysis structure
9 Q2 2018 REVIEW
9 Celgene delivers an important turnaround quarter
9 Celgene’s outlook strengthened by key pipeline wins
10 Bibliography
11 Q1 2018 REVIEW
11 Celgene reports Q1 2018 product sales of $3.5bn, up by 19.6% compared to Q1 2017
12 Prothena deal supports growing neuroscience focus
12 Key 2018 catalysts
13 Bibliography
14 Q4 2017 REVIEW
14 Celgene finishes 2017 strongly with Juno and Impact acquisitions
15 Q4 2017 events
15 Tax reform has provided the impetus for acquisitions
16 Clinical updates
17 Bibliography
18 Q3 2017 REVIEW
18 Celgene’s outlook is tempered as Otezla loses momentum
18 Otezla revenue disappoints as key oncology products continue to grow
20 Clinical holds will not hinder Revlimid and Pomalyst growth
20 Price hikes for Revlimid and Pomalyst will help plug Otezla hole
20 Phase III failure of GED-0301 emphasizes the importance of ozanimod to Celgene’s long-term growth
21 Q3 2017 events
21 Q4 2017 will be a key period for Celgene
22 Bibliography
23 STRATEGY ANALYSIS
23 Celgene is a global leader in oncology
23 Revlimid will experience strong mid-term growth
23 Strong investor pressure
23 Celgene looks to cellular immunotherapy to drive future growth
24 Long-term outlook
24 Celgene’s SWOT analysis
26 Celgene’s key events and catalysts
27 Bibliography
28 PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
30 Q2 2018
32 Bibliography
34 FACTS AND FIGURES
34 Celgene’s prescription pharma sales outlook
34 Celgene’s regional pharma sales outlook
36 Celgene’s therapy area dynamics
43 Celgene’s top 10 products over 2017–27
43 Celgene’s growth drivers and resistors
46 Celgene’s lifecycle analysis
48 Celgene’s pipeline analysis
50 Celgene’s M&A strategy and history
LIST OF FIGURES
16 Figure 1: JCAR017 Phase I data in relapsed/refractory DLBCL presented at ASH 2017, and Yescarta and Kymriah Phase II data shown at ASCO 2017 and ASH 2017
34 Figure 2: Celgene’s prescription pharmaceutical sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2014–27
36 Figure 3: Celgene’s therapy area dynamics, 2017–27
43 Figure 4: Celgene’s top 10 product sales ($m), 2017–27
46 Figure 5: Celgene’s launch/core/expiry/generic portfolio configuration, 2017–27
48 Figure 6: Celgene’s pipeline overview
LIST OF TABLES
29 Table 1: Celgene’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2017–27
35 Table 2: Celgene’s prescription pharmaceutical sales by region ($m), 2017–27
37 Table 3: Celgene’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2017–27
39 Table 4: Celgene’s oncology portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27
42 Table 5: Celgene’s I&I portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27
44 Table 6: Celgene’s key products, 2017–27
47 Table 7: Celgene’s sales by launch, core, expiry, and generic portfolio ($m), 2017–27
49 Table 8: Celgene’s launch portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27
51 Table 9: Celgene’s key merger and acquisition deals, 2008–18
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