PharmaVitae explores Eli Lilly’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29.

Snapshot

• Overview – Eli Lilly’s prescription pharmaceutical business has been reversing recent declines and will grow out to 2029.
• Key themes – [1] Diabetes sales will peak in the early 2020s, as key patent expirations will only be partially offset by strong biosimilar growth [2] Oncology portfolio will be a growth driver through the forecast period [3] Eli Lilly will remain active in business development (Loxo Oncology, Dermira) to bolster development pipeline.

Model updates (3 August 2020)

• Verzenio forecast adjusted higher due to recent results of Phase III monarchE study in adjuvant breast cancer
• Retevmo forecast adjusted higher due to initial launch trends
• Reyvow forecast adjusted lower due to initial launch trends.

Model updates (2 June 2020)

• Trulicity forecast adjusted higher
• Jardiance royalties forecast adjusted lower due to amendment of agreement between Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly
• Trajenta royalties forecast adjusted lower due to amendment of agreement between Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly
• LY900014 forecast adjusted higher due to earlier-than-expected approval in Europe and Japan
• Olumiant forecast adjusted lower in the US
• Tyvyt forecast added.

Model updates (28 February 2020)

• Trulicity forecast adjusted due to sustained robust volume growth globally
• Jardiance royalties forecast adjusted higher due to sustained leadership in the SGLT-2 inhibitor class
• Taltz forecast adjusted higher due to strong prescription growth in both dermatology and rheumatology
• Verzenio forecast adjusted lower to better align with launch trajectory and trends in the CDK4/6 market
• LOXO-292 name changed to selpercatinib; forecast pulled forward due to earlier-than-expected regulatory filings
• LY3298176 name changed to tirzepatide
• Pegilodecakin forecast removed after failures of CYPRESS 1 and CYPRESS 2 in non-small cell lung cancer
• Tanezumab forecast added
• Lebrikizumab forecast added due to acquisition of Dermira
• Qbrexza forecast added due to acquisition of Dermira.

Model updates (4 November 2019)

• Trulicity forecast adjusted higher in 5EU and RoW due to strong volume performance
• Emgality forecast adjusted higher due to strong launch in the US, but lowered in 5EU and RoW due to slower-than-expected launches
• Alimta forecast adjusted lower due to less of a benefit from combination therapy with Keytruda in the US
• Verzenio forecast adjusted higher due to higher prices and demand in the US
• Jardiance forecast adjusted higher due to robust volume growth globally
• Olumiant forecast adjusted higher due to better performance in Europe
• Pegilodecakin forecast adjusted lower due to failure in pancreatic cancer
• Baqsimi forecast added.

Model updates (16 July 2019)

• Trulicity sales adjusted upwards due to continued growth of GLP-1 class and market share gains
• Humalog sales adjusted lower due to increased rebates and discounts, as well as launch of insulin lispro in the US
• Alimta sales adjusted lower due to lesser benefit from combination therapy with Keytruda in the US
• Cialis sales adjusted upwards due to less generic competition than anticipated in the Rest of World region
• Forteo sales adjusted lower due to upcoming biosimilar competition, and trajectory normalized after outsized growth in 2017
• Humulin sales adjusted lower due to increased rebates and discounts in the US
• Taltz sales adjusted lower due to normalization after rapid launch in 2018
• Cymbalta sales adjusted upwards due to better performance in Japan
• Lartruvo removed from forecast after withdrawal from market due to failure of Phase III ANNOUNCE trial
• Emgality sales adjusted lower due to slower-than-anticipated US launch
• LY900014 added
• Mirikizumab added
• Pegilodecakin added
• LY3298176 added
• LOXO-292 added.