Company Analysis: Eli Lilly
Company Analysis: Eli Lilly
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PharmaVitae explores Eli Lilly’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29. PharmaVitae analyses include quarterly earnings coverage and provide timely updates to company product forecasts. The full company profile encompasses analysis on corporate strategy, portfolio analysis, pipeline potential, and financial performance.
Author: PharmaVitae
Publisher: Datamonitor Healthcare
- Highlights
- Description
- Contents
Report Snapshot
- Eli Lilly is one of the largest pharmaceutical companies, with total revenues of more than $22 billion in 2019.
- Eli Lilly compares favorably to most peers over near-term (2019-2024) and to all peers over long-term (2024- 2029) revenue growth rates; The company also is expected to generate 16% of revenue from launch products in 2025, which again is higher than peer average.
- Eli Lilly derives a significant portion of sales from diabetes, which is seeing diverging trends, with a sustained strong growth outlook for GLP or SGLT products like Trulicity and Jardiance, which is offsetting increasing pressures on insulin products like Humalog and Humulin.
- Trulicity’s strong revenue performance in the near-term is mainly driven by increasing demand and volume growth, although constrained by pricing pressures in the US.
- Biosimilar competition and negative pricing trends in insulin are two key risk for Eli Lilly, given the company generated more than $4 billion in sales from branded insulin-related products in 2019. Eli Lilly also can participate in biosimilar growth, as Basaglar generated more than $1 billion in sales in 2019.
- Eli Lilly’s revamped oncology division, led by the former Loxo Oncology team, should have a meaningful contribution to future growth with selpercatinib.
- High-impact upcoming events comprise topline Phase II and Phase III trial results, an expected PDUFA date for supplemental NDA, an estimated supplemental CHMP opinion, and an estimated supplemental European approval.
- Eli Lilly completed the acquisition of Dermira in February 2020 for approximately $1.1 billion. The acquisition expands Lilly’s immunology pipeline with the addition of lebrikizumab, an investigational monoclonal antibody targeting IL-13 in development for moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis. Furthermore in October 2020, Eli Lilly acquired Disarm Therapeutics for an upfront payment of $135 million and up to $1.23 billion additional future payments. The acquisition expands Lilly’s R&D efforts in pain and neurodegeneration with the addition of Disarm’s promising preclinical SARM1 programs for axonal degeneration.
PharmaVitae explores Eli Lilly’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29.
Snapshot
- Overview – Eli Lilly’s prescription pharmaceutical business has been reversing recent declines and will grow out to 2029.
- Key themes – [1] Diabetes sales will peak in the early 2020s, as key patent expirations will only be partially offset by strong biosimilar growth [2] Oncology portfolio will be a growth driver through the forecast period [3] Eli Lilly will remain active in business development (Loxo Oncology, Dermira) to bolster development pipeline.
Model updates (3 November 2020)
- Trajenta royalties adjusted lower in the US
- Trulicity forecast adjusted lower in the US
- Jardiance royalties adjusted lower in the US.
Model updates (3 August 2020)
- Verzenio forecast adjusted higher due to recent results of Phase III monarchE study in adjuvant breast cancer
- Retevmo forecast adjusted higher due to initial launch trends
- Reyvow forecast adjusted lower due to initial launch trends.
Model updates (2 June 2020)
- Trulicity forecast adjusted higher
- Jardiance royalties forecast adjusted lower due to amendment of agreement between Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly
- Trajenta royalties forecast adjusted lower due to amendment of agreement between Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly
- LY900014 forecast adjusted higher due to earlier-than-expected approval in Europe and Japan
- Olumiant forecast adjusted lower in the US
- Tyvyt forecast added.
Model updates (28 February 2020)
- Trulicity forecast adjusted due to sustained robust volume growth globally
- Jardiance royalties forecast adjusted higher due to sustained leadership in the SGLT-2 inhibitor class
- Taltz forecast adjusted higher due to strong prescription growth in both dermatology and rheumatology
- Verzenio forecast adjusted lower to better align with launch trajectory and trends in the CDK4/6 market
- LOXO-292 name changed to selpercatinib; forecast pulled forward due to earlier-than-expected regulatory filings
- LY3298176 name changed to tirzepatide
- Pegilodecakin forecast removed after failures of CYPRESS 1 and CYPRESS 2 in non-small cell lung cancer
- Tanezumab forecast added
- Lebrikizumab forecast added due to acquisition of Dermira
- Qbrexza forecast added due to acquisition of Dermira.
Table of Contents
Company Background
Company Overview
Key Metrics
SWOT Analysis
Key Drug & Company Information
Company Comparison
Recent Earnings Review
Earnings Overview
Pharma Insights Analysis
Company Forecast
Prescription Pharmaceuticals Sales Outlook
Branded Drug Outlook
Launch Profile Outlook
Therapy Area Outlook
Regional Sales Outlook
Lifecycle Analysis
Company Profile
Marketed & Pipeline Drugs
Recent Events & Analyst Opinions
Upcoming Catalysts
Recent Insights
Clinical Trial Overview
Clinical Trial Snapshot
Clinical Trials by Country
Clinical Trials by Status and Phase
Clinical Trials by Drug
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