PharmaVitae explores Johnson & Johnson’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29.

Snapshot

• Overview – Johnson & Johnson’s growth will be driven by its pharmaceuticals segment.
• Key themes – [1] Oncology will be a considerable growth driver for Johnson & Johnson, as Darzalex and Imbruvica exhibit robust growth at blockbuster levels [2] Growth from immunology products Stelara and Tremfya will counter increasing biosimilar headwinds to Remicade [3] Johnson & Johnson’s neuroscience portfolio will also drive growth, with the Invega franchise and recently launched Spravato, along with key pipeline asset ponesimod.

Model updates (30 July 2020)

• Darzalex forecast adjusted higher due to continued strong growth and market share gains, driven by patient uptake across all lines of therapy.
• Tremfya sales adjusted lower due to current sales trends.

Model updates (1 June 2020)

• Erleada forecast refined due to JNJ disclosing historical sales.

Model updates (26 February 2020)

• Remicade forecast adjusted lower due to additional biosimilar launches in the US and increased discounts and rebates
• Simponi forecast adjusted lower in Rest of World due to competition
• Stelara forecast adjusted higher due to strong uptake in Crohn’s disease
• Tremfya forecast adjusted higher due to uptake in psoriasis
• Prezista / Prezcobix / Rezolsta / Symtuza forecast adjusted higher due to consolidation of JNJ’s HIV portfolio under one product entry, bringing in line with how JNJ reports
• Symtuza forecast removed due to above-mentioned consolidation
• Invega Sustenna / Trinza forecast adjusted higher due to new patient starts and persistency
• Darzalex forecast adjusted higher due to continued strong market growth and share gains in the US and Europe, driven by patient uptake in all lines of therapy
• Imbruvica forecast adjusted higher due to increased patient uptake globally and higher market share, driven primarily by first-line chronic lymphocytic leukemia
• Zytiga forecast adjusted higher due to stronger-than-expected performance of authorized generic in the US and strong sales and share growth in Europe
• Velcade forecast adjusted lower due to generic competition
• Xarelto forecast adjusted higher in the US due to volume and market growth
• Invokana forecast adjusted lower due to market share losses and safety label update
• JNJ-4528 forecast pulled forward due to earlier-than-expected US and European filings, and a Chinese approval decision expected in late 2020.

Model updates (15 October 2019)

• Remicade sales adjusted higher internationally due to better-than-anticipated performance
• Stelara sales adjusted higher due to continued share gains in Crohn’s disease
• Tremfya sales adjusted higher due to strong uptake in psoriasis
• Imbruvica sales adjusted higher due to increased patient uptake globally, higher market share, and growth across multiple indications, primarily in first-line chronic lymphocytic leukemia
• Velcade sales adjusted lower due to higher initial impact of generic competition
• Xarelto sales adjusted higher due to better-than-expected volume growth offsetting the increased reimbursement issues seen in the US
• Tracleer sales adjusted lower due to higher impact of generics.

Model updates (18 July 2019)

• Darzalex sales adjusted higher due to continued penetration and market share gains
• Xarelto sales adjusted lower due to significant reimbursement issues in the US, notably the increase in the legislative rate for the donut hole from 50% to 70%, along with higher Medicare and donut hole utilization
• Zytiga sales adjusted higher due to lower-than-anticipated generic impact in the US and recent approvals in Europe and Asia for metastatic high-risk castration-sensitive prostate cancer based on the Phase III LATITUDE study
• Balversa forecast added
• JNJ-4528 (BCMA CAR-T) forecast added
• Ponesimod forecast added.