PharmaVitae explores Johnson & Johnson’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29.

Snapshot

• Overview – Johnson & Johnson’s growth will be driven by its pharmaceuticals segment.
• Key themes – [1] Oncology will be a considerable growth driver for Johnson & Johnson, as Darzalex and Imbruvica exhibit robust growth at blockbuster levels [2] Growth from immunology products Stelara and Tremfya will counter increasing biosimilar headwinds to Remicade [3] Johnson & Johnson’s neuroscience portfolio will also drive growth, with the Invega franchise and recently launched Spravato, along with key pipeline asset ponesimod.

Model updates (13 October 2020)

• Darzalex forecast adjusted higher
• Tremfya forecast adjusted lower in the US due to impact from COVID-19
• Erleada forecast adjusted higher
• Zytiga forecast adjusted lower in the US due to generic competition
• Opsumit forecast adjusted higher in the US
• Uptravi forecast adjusted higher in the US
• JNJ-4528 forecast adjusted lower due to regulatory timelines
• Spravato forecast adjusted lower due to lack of disclosure.

Model updates (30 July 2020)

• Darzalex forecast adjusted higher due to continued strong growth and market share gains, driven by patient uptake across all lines of therapy
• Tremfya sales adjusted lower due to current sales trends.

Model updates (1 June 2020)

• Erleada forecast refined due to JNJ disclosing historical sales.

Model updates (26 February 2020)

• Remicade forecast adjusted lower due to additional biosimilar launches in the US and increased discounts and rebates
• Simponi forecast adjusted lower in Rest of World due to competition
• Stelara forecast adjusted higher due to strong uptake in Crohn’s disease
• Tremfya forecast adjusted higher due to uptake in psoriasis
• Prezista / Prezcobix / Rezolsta / Symtuza forecast adjusted higher due to consolidation of JNJ’s HIV portfolio under one product entry, bringing in line with how JNJ reports
• Symtuza forecast removed due to above-mentioned consolidation
• Invega Sustenna / Trinza forecast adjusted higher due to new patient starts and persistency
• Darzalex forecast adjusted higher due to continued strong market growth and share gains in the US and Europe, driven by patient uptake in all lines of therapy
• Imbruvica forecast adjusted higher due to increased patient uptake globally and higher market share, driven primarily by first-line chronic lymphocytic leukemia
• Zytiga forecast adjusted higher due to stronger-than-expected performance of authorized generic in the US and strong sales and share growth in Europe
• Velcade forecast adjusted lower due to generic competition
• Xarelto forecast adjusted higher in the US due to volume and market growth
• Invokana forecast adjusted lower due to market share losses and safety label update
• JNJ-4528 forecast pulled forward due to earlier-than-expected US and European filings, and a Chinese approval decision expected in late 2020.