This Market Spotlight report covers the Obesity market, comprising key marketed and pipeline drugs, clinical trials, recent events and analyst opinion, key upcoming and regulatory events, probability of success, patent information, a 10-year disease prevalence forecast, and licensing and acquisition deals, as well as presenting drug-specific revenue forecasts.

Key Takeaways

• Datamonitor Healthcare estimates that in 2017, there were approximately 681.3 million prevalent cases of obesity in adults (aged 20+ years) worldwide, and expects that number to increase to 762.9 million prevalent cases by 2026.
• In the same year, Datamonitor Healthcare estimates that there were 126.6 million prevalent cases of obesity in children and adolescents (aged 5–19 years) worldwide, and expects that number to increase to 134.0 million prevalent cases by 2026.
• Prevalence proportions are highest in Northern America and lowest in Asia. The approved drugs in the obesity space target gastric lipase, dopamine, norepinephrine (noradrenaline), dopamine reuptake, norepinephrine (noradrenaline) reuptake/transporter, opioid receptors, GABA-A receptor, serotonin 5-HT2C receptor, and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor. The majority of marketed drugs are administered via the oral route, with one product being available in a subcutaneous formulation.
• The majority of industry-sponsored drugs in active clinical development for obesity are in Phase I, with only one drug in Phase III. Therapies in mid-to-late-stage development for obesity focus on a wide variety of targets, with the subcutaneous route being the most common method of delivery.
• High-impact upcoming events for drugs in the obesity space comprise expected PDUFA dates for Qsymia, Belviq, and Belviq XR, and an estimated EU patent expiry for Qsymia.
• The overall likelihood of approval of a Phase I obesity asset is 2.6%, and the average probability a drug advances from Phase III is 62.5%. Drugs, on average, take 8.7 years from Phase I to approval, compared to 8.8 years in the overall metabolic space.
• There have been 39 licensing and asset acquisition deals involving obesity drugs during 2014–19. The largest deal was the $301.1m collaboration and license agreement signed in 2017 between Boehringer Ingelheim and Gubra for the development of novel peptide compounds to treat obesity.
• The distribution of clinical trials across Phase I–IV indicates that the majority of trials for obesity have been in the early and midphases of development, with 66% of trials in Phase I–II, and 34% in Phase III–IV.
• The US has a substantial lead in the number of obesity clinical trials globally. The UK leads the major EU markets, while Japan has the top spot in Asia.
• Clinical trial activity in the obesity space is dominated by completed trials. AstraZeneca has the highest number of completed clinical trials for obesity, with 74 trials.
• AstraZeneca leads industry sponsors with the highest overall number of clinical trials for obesity, followed by Novo Nordisk.