This Market Spotlight report covers the Zika virus market, comprising key pipeline therapies, clinical trials, probability of success, epidemiology, and licensing and acquisition deals.

Key Takeaways

• The Zika virus was first reported in continental South America in Brazil in May 2015. In February 2016, between 440,000 and 1,300,000 people were infected in Brazil. In the US, about 225 Zika virus cases were reported in August 2017. In addition, 554 cases were reported in people infected through local mosquito-borne transmission. Furthermore, autochthonous Zika virus transmission was reported in 25 countries in the Americas, Africa, and Asia.
• In 2016, it was estimated that there were between 508 and 1,778 imported cases in Europe, particularly in France, Portugal, and Italy.
• The majority of industry-sponsored drugs in active clinical development for Zika virus are in Phase I, with just a single product in Phase II.
• Therapies in early-to-mid-stage development for Zika virus focus on the immune system, viral antigens, and RNA polymerase. Candidates comprise DNA vaccines such as the National Institutes of Health’s Zika Virus Vaccine, GeneOne’s GLS-5700, and Inovio’s INO-A002; Moderna’s mRNA vaccine; Themis Bioscience’s recombinant viral vector vaccine; Imutex’s AGS-v vaccine; Johnson & Johnson’s Ad26.ZIKV.001 vaccine; Takeda’s TAK-426 vaccine; Emergent BioSolutions’ ZIKV-IG; Valneva’s ZIKV-VLA1601; and BioCryst’s galidesivir, a broad-spectrum antiviral drug.
• The overall likelihood of approval of a Phase I antiviral asset is 16.3%, and the average probability a drug advances from Phase III is 77.5%. Drugs, on average, take 8.7 years from Phase I to approval, compared to 9.0 years in the overall infectious disease space.
• There have been 10 licensing and asset acquisition deals involving Zika virus drugs during 2014–19, all of which occurred in either 2016 or 2017. The exclusive 2017 agreement between Emergent BioSolutions and Valneva, worth $58.3m, for the global rights to Valneva’s Zika vaccine technology and ZIKV-VLA1601, was the largest deal during the period.
• All clinical trials for Zika virus have been in either Phase I or Phase II, with no Phase III trials to date.
• The US leads in terms of the number of Zika virus clinical trials globally.
• Takeda, Ala Wai Pharma, and Emergex Vaccines have one planned trial each in the Zika virus space.
• Inovio and Sanofi lead industry sponsors with three clinical trials each for Zika virus.