Company Analysis: Merck & Co
Company Analysis: Merck & Co
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PharmaVitae explores Merck & Co’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29. PharmaVitae analyses include quarterly earnings coverage and provide timely updates to company product forecasts. The full company profile encompasses analysis on corporate strategy, portfolio analysis, pipeline potential, and financial performance.
Publisher: Datamonitor Healthcare
- Highlights
- Description
- Contents
Report Snapshot
- Merck is a leading global healthcare company, generating revenues of more than $46 billion in 2019.
- Merck compares unfavorably to most peers over both near-term (2019-2024) and long-term (2024-2029) revenue growth rates; the company also is expected to generate less than 2% of revenue from launch products in 2025, which again is lower than peer average.
- Keytruda’s sales are expected to grow as it continues to build across the multiple approved indications, in particular for the treatment of first-line non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) both as monotherapy, and in combination with chemotherapy for either nonsquamous or squamous NSCLC, along with uptake in the recently launched renal cell carcinoma and adjuvant melanoma indications.
- International revenues for Keytruda are expected to grow robustly as well, especially in Rest of World markets like China, where the incidence rates for key indications like lung cancer are multiple times higher than developed markets.
- Vaccines, Hospital Care, and Animal Health portfolios provide a strong, reliable base business for Merck. Several vaccine brands, including Gardasil and Bridion, are delivering extremely robust growth at blockbuster sales levels.
- Merck’s recent announcement of the spin-off of its women’s health, trusted legacy brands, and biosimilars business should streamline the remaining business, remove some upcoming and ongoing patent cliffs, and return $8 billion to $9 billion dollars to Merck through a special tax-free dividend, some which might be used for further business development. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2021.
- Key upcoming events for Merck include top-line results for Keytruda and TV003; further details, regulatory filings, and the closing of the NewCo spin-off are also important events.
- Merck’s $2.7 billion acquisition of ArQule will strengthen its pipeline with the addition of strategic assets including, most notably, ARQ 531, a compelling candidate for the treatment of B-cell malignancies.
PharmaVitae explores Merck & Co’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29.
Snapshot
- Overview – Merck & Co’s revenue growth will be fairly stable over the forecast period, as growth from Keytruda and Gardasil will be offset by declines from Januvia, Janumet, and the spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands.
- Key themes – [1] Keytruda will see strong growth over the forecast period until loss of exclusivity in 2028, although 2020 growth will be negatively impacted by two large price reductions in Japan [2] Merck’s metabolic portfolio will decline significantly due to patent expiries for key drugs Januvia and Janumet [3] Merck’s late-stage pipeline is heavily skewed towards label expansions for its existing oncology portfolio, with only a few new drug launches expected over the forecast period.
Model updates (27 October 2020)
- Keytruda forecast adjusted higher in the US due to lower impact from COVID-19 and broadening of revenue base beyond lung cancer
- Gardasil forecast adjusted lower due to continued COVID-19 impact in the US
- Januvia forecast adjusted higher due to stronger revenue trends.
Model updates (3 August 2020)
- Gardasil forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact in the US
- ProQuad forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact in the US
- Pneumovax 23 forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact in the US
- Keytruda forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact in the US and Europe.
Model updates (2 June 2020)
- Lenvima alliance revenue forecast adjusted higher
- NuvaRing forecast adjusted lower due to generic impact in the US.
Model updates (4 March 2020)
- Keytruda forecast adjusted lower due to 2020 impact of two significant price reductions in Japan
- Gardasil forecast adjusted higher due to strong demand globally
- Lenvima alliance revenue forecast added
- Lynparza alliance revenue forecast added
- Zetia forecast removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
- Vytorin removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
- NuvaRing removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
- Implanon removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
- Singulair removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
- Cozaar removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
- Nasonex removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
- Arcoxia removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
- Follistim removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands.
Table of Contents
Company Background
Company Overview
Key Metrics
SWOT Analysis
Key Drug & Company Information
Company Comparison
Recent Earnings Review
Earnings Overview
Pharma Insights Analysis
Company Forecast
Prescription Pharmaceuticals Sales Outlook
Branded Drug Outlook
Launch Profile Outlook
Therapy Area Outlook
Regional Sales Outlook
Lifecycle Analysis
Company Profile
Marketed & Pipeline Drugs
Recent Events & Analyst Opinions
Upcoming Catalysts
Recent Insights
Clinical Trial Overview
Clinical Trial Snapshot
Clinical Trials by Country
Clinical Trials by Status and Phase
Clinical Trials by Drug
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