PharmaVitae explores Roche’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29.

Snapshot

• Overview – Roche is poised to grow despite significant biosimilar headwinds to legacy franchises, with several new blockbusters and a strong late-stage pipeline.
• Key themes – [1] Roche will see near-term growth even as key franchises encounter heavy biosimilar competition, as recent launches have been very strong [2] Ocrevus, Perjeta, Tecentriq, and Hemlibra are all seeing rapid growth at blockbuster levels [3] Roche’s recent string of acquisitions reflects the company’s ambition to reinforce its dominance in oncology, in anticipation of biosimilar erosion of its leading brands.

Model updates (15 October 2020)

• Actemra forecast adjusted lower due to smaller COVID-19 benefit than expected
• Avastin forecast adjusted lower due to higher-than-expected biosimilar impact
• Herceptin forecast adjusted lower due to higher-than-expected biosimilar impact
• Pralsetinib name changed to Gavreto after US approval
• Risdiplam name changed to Evrysdi after US approval
• Phesgo added to forecast
• Etrolizumab forecast adjusted lower after failure of Phase III program in ulcerative colitis
• Idasanutin forecast removed after company stopped development in AML.

Model updates (24 July 2020)

• Avastin forecast adjusted lower due to higher-than-expected biosimilar impact
• Rituxan forecast adjusted lower due to higher-than-expected biosimilar impact
• Actemra forecast adjusted higher due to COVID-19 benefits
• Ocrevus forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impacts to new patient starts in MS
• Lucentis forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact on ophthalmology patient access
• Pralsetinib forecast added due to in-licensing of asset from Blueprint Medicines
• Satralizumab name changed to Enspryng due to approval in Japan.

Model updates (3 June 2020)

• Avastin forecast adjusted lower due to biosimilar impact in the US
• Rozlytrek forecast adjusted lower due to launch trend
• Herceptin forecast adjusted lower due to biosimilar impact in the US
• Ocrevus forecast adjusted higher due to strong demand trends and continued market share gains
• Polivy forecast adjusted higher due to initial launch in Europe.

Model updates (4 March 2020)

• Rituxan forecast adjusted higher due to lower-than-expected initial impact from biosimilar launches in the US
• Herceptin forecast adjusted lower due to continued generic erosion and patients switching to Kadcyla
• Perjeta forecast adjusted higher due to increased patient demand for adjuvant early breast cancer
• Ocrevus forecast adjusted higher due to continued uptake across all types of multiple sclerosis and gains in earlier lines of therapy
• Tecentriq forecast adjusted higher due to uptake in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer and triple-negative breast cancer, in addition to first-line non-small cell lung cancer
• Kadcyla forecast adjusted higher due to adjuvant treatment and switching from Herceptin
• Hemlibra forecast adjusted higher due to continued share gains in non-inhibitors and inhibitors
• Alecensa forecast adjusted higher due to growth in first-line ALK+ non-small cell lung cancer and NDRL listing in China
• Rozlytrek forecast adjusted lower due to slower-than-expected launch
• Polivy forecast adjusted higher due to stronger-than-expected launch
• Satralizumab forecast added
• SPK-8011 forecast added
• SRP-9001 forecast added after $1.15bn upfront licensing deal with Sarepta.