Company Analysis: Roche
Company Analysis: Roche
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PharmaVitae explores Roche’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29. PharmaVitae analyses include quarterly earnings coverage and provide timely updates to company product forecasts. The full company profile encompasses analysis on corporate strategy, portfolio analysis, pipeline potential, and financial performance.
Publisher: Datamonitor Healthcare
- Highlights
- Description
- Contents
Report Snapshot
- Roche is the world’s largest biotechnology company, generating more than CHF 61 billion ($62 billion) in sales in 2019. The company has two divisions – Pharmaceuticals, which generated more than CHF 48 billion in sales, and Diagnostics, which generated almost CHF 13 billion in sales.
- Roche is well diversified, with 13 drugs that generated more than $1 billion in sales in 2019, including Avastin, Rituxan, Herceptin, Perjeta, Ocrevus, Actemra, Xolair, Lucentis, Tecentriq, Kadcyla, and Hemlibra.
- Roche compares unfavorably to most peers over near-term (2019-2024) and favorably to most peers over longterm (2024–29) revenue growth rates; the company also is expected to generate less than 10% of revenue from launch products in 2025, which is lower than peer average.
- Roche his facing heavy biosimilar competition for Herceptin, Avastin, and Rituxan, its key legacy franchises which generated almost CHF 20 billion in sales in 2019.
- Approved in 2017, Ocrevus has become Roche’s fourth-largest drug in less than three years, achieving sales of almost CHF 4 billion in 2019. The drug has significant room for further growth through market share capture in multiple sclerosis.
- There are several high-impact upcoming events, including estimated PDUFA dates for Alecensa, Ocrevus, and Xolair; estimated Japanese supplemental approval for Xofluza; and expected CHMP opinions for Enspryng and Evrysdi.
- In May 2020, Roche acquired Stratos Genomics, an early-stage sequencing technology company, to advance the development of its nanopore sequencer. Additionally, Roche completed the $4.8 billion acquisition of Spark Therapeutics in December 2019, significantly bolstering Roche’s gene therapy efforts. Furthermore, in December 2019, Roche entered into a licensing agreement with Sarepta Therapeutics for the exclusive rights to SRP-9001 outside the US. Roche paid $1.15 billion upfront and Sarepta is eligible to receive $1.7 billion in milestones, plus royalties on net sales of SRP-9001.
PharmaVitae explores Roche’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29.
Snapshot
- Overview – Roche is poised to grow despite significant biosimilar headwinds to legacy franchises, with several new blockbusters and a strong late-stage pipeline.
- Key themes – [1] Roche will see near-term growth even as key franchises encounter heavy biosimilar competition, as recent launches have been very strong [2] Ocrevus, Perjeta, Tecentriq, and Hemlibra are all seeing rapid growth at blockbuster levels [3] Roche’s recent string of acquisitions reflects the company’s ambition to reinforce its dominance in oncology, in anticipation of biosimilar erosion of its leading brands.
Model updates (15 October 2020)
- Actemra forecast adjusted lower due to smaller COVID-19 benefit than expected
- Avastin forecast adjusted lower due to higher-than-expected biosimilar impact
- Herceptin forecast adjusted lower due to higher-than-expected biosimilar impact
- Pralsetinib name changed to Gavreto after US approval
- Risdiplam name changed to Evrysdi after US approval
- Phesgo added to forecast
- Etrolizumab forecast adjusted lower after failure of Phase III program in ulcerative colitis
- Idasanutin forecast removed after company stopped development in AML.
Model updates (24 July 2020)
- Avastin forecast adjusted lower due to higher-than-expected biosimilar impact
- Rituxan forecast adjusted lower due to higher-than-expected biosimilar impact
- Actemra forecast adjusted higher due to COVID-19 benefits
- Ocrevus forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impacts to new patient starts in MS
- Lucentis forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact on ophthalmology patient access
- Pralsetinib forecast added due to in-licensing of asset from Blueprint Medicines
- Satralizumab name changed to Enspryng due to approval in Japan.
Model updates (3 June 2020)
- Avastin forecast adjusted lower due to biosimilar impact in the US
- Rozlytrek forecast adjusted lower due to launch trend
- Herceptin forecast adjusted lower due to biosimilar impact in the US
- Ocrevus forecast adjusted higher due to strong demand trends and continued market share gains
- Polivy forecast adjusted higher due to initial launch in Europe.
Model updates (4 March 2020)
- Rituxan forecast adjusted higher due to lower-than-expected initial impact from biosimilar launches in the US
- Herceptin forecast adjusted lower due to continued generic erosion and patients switching to Kadcyla
- Perjeta forecast adjusted higher due to increased patient demand for adjuvant early breast cancer
- Ocrevus forecast adjusted higher due to continued uptake across all types of multiple sclerosis and gains in earlier lines of therapy
- Tecentriq forecast adjusted higher due to uptake in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer and triple-negative breast cancer, in addition to first-line non-small cell lung cancer
- Kadcyla forecast adjusted higher due to adjuvant treatment and switching from Herceptin
- Hemlibra forecast adjusted higher due to continued share gains in non-inhibitors and inhibitors
- Alecensa forecast adjusted higher due to growth in first-line ALK+ non-small cell lung cancer and NDRL listing in China
- Rozlytrek forecast adjusted lower due to slower-than-expected launch
- Polivy forecast adjusted higher due to stronger-than-expected launch
- Satralizumab forecast added
- SPK-8011 forecast added
- SRP-9001 forecast added after $1.15bn upfront licensing deal with Sarepta.
Table of Contents
Company Background
Company Overview
Key Metrics
SWOT Analysis
Key Drug & Company Information
Company Comparison
Recent Earnings Review
Earnings Overview
Pharma Insights Analysis
Company Forecast
Prescription Pharmaceuticals Sales Outlook
Branded Drug Outlook
Launch Profile Outlook
Therapy Area Outlook
Regional Sales Outlook
Lifecycle Analysis
Company Profile
Marketed & Pipeline Drugs
Recent Events & Analyst Opinions
Upcoming Catalysts
Recent Insights
Clinical Trial Overview
Clinical Trial Snapshot
Clinical Trials by Country
Clinical Trials by Status and Phase
Clinical Trials by Drug
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