Schizophrenia is a serious mental illness characterized by incoherent thoughts, bizarre behavior, and delusions or hallucinations. The American Psychiatric Association (APA) defines schizophrenia as a chronic brain disorder which actively presents with delusions, hallucinations, lack of motivation, and issues with thinking and concentration
Overview
- Datamonitor Healthcare estimates that in 2018, there were 23.6 million 12-month prevalent cases of schizophrenia in those aged 15 years and older worldwide, and forecasts that number to increase to 26.8 million cases by 2027.
- There have been a number of recent impactful clinical trial data announcements in the schizophrenia space. One of these was the revival of the Nuplazid’s hopes in schizophrenia with promising results from a Phase II trial focused on the negative symptoms of the disease. Conversely, Minerva released mixed results for its negative symptom prospect, MIN-101, that have plunged the drug’s potential into uncertainty. In addition, impressive pivotal trial results from Alkermes’ ALKS 3831 in late 2018 have provided a strong case for approval of the drug, and the FDA’s advisory committee agreed with these benefits, though the FDA’s issuance of a complete response letter (based on a manufacturing issue) has postponed likely approval.
- The current dynamics of the antipsychotic market show domination by atypical antipsychotics, typically oral agents, but there is an increasing uptake of long-acting injectable (LAI) neuroleptics, which will continue. Oral atypical antipsychotics that were historical blockbusters are now facing intense generic erosion. The highest-selling oral antipsychotic is Latuda, one of the newer atypical drugs, but its market exclusivity is only set to last until 2023.
- Other newly marketed and pipeline antipsychotics look likely to maintain growth of the oral antipsychotic segment. The demand for both Rexulti and Vraylar, patent protected until 2029 and 2028, respectively, looks set to continually increase over this decade. Considering the approaching genericization of oral market leader Latuda, Rexulti and Vraylar are anticipated to take over as key branded products. Vraylar could even become an unprecedented treatment option for the negative symptoms of schizophrenia. Interestingly, the most advanced pipeline neuroleptics – ALKS 3831, MIN-101, and Nuplazid – are all orally administered therapies. However, their respective drug developers differentiate them from the highly genericized oral antipsychotic market by positioning them as drugs directed at the unmet needs of the indication, namely increased tolerability (reduced weight gain) and targeting the underserved negative symptom domain.
- Invega Sustenna and Trinza remain highly competitive, with patent expiry and loss of exclusivity not destined to occur for over another decade. In addition to succeeding Invega with a combined wealth of real-world data, these LAI formulations are highly appealing in the schizophrenia market since poor medication compliance rates are seen all too commonly. Furthermore, Johnson & Johnson plans to introduce a longer six-monthly formulation to the market next year, which would be a first of its kind in schizophrenia, further tackling non-compliance for longer periods and reducing the burden of frequent healthcare visits for patients.
- Other newer LAIs – Otsuka/Lundbeck’s once-monthly Abilify Maintena, Alkermes’ one-to-two-monthly Aristada, and Indivior’s once-monthly Perseris – will strengthen their market positions over the coming years. Abilify Maintena will likely give the Invega franchise the stiffest competition, and Otsuka/Lundbeck will benefit from the drug also being indicated for bipolar disorder. On the other hand, treatment initiation of Abilify Maintena requires an oral supplementation of Abilify, unlike that of Invega Sustenna. To establish more variable dosing options, Lundbeck plans to file a supplementary NDA for a two-monthly Abilify Maintena formulation. In 2018, Alkermes strengthened its position in the LAI market by attaining approval for Aristada Initio, a one-off introductory dose of the drug, mitigating the prior need for three weeks of concomitant oral aripiprazole. Johnson & Johnson’s Risperdal Consta is set to lose market exclusivity in 2023, and Indivior is looking to capitalize further with its more appealing monthly dosed risperidone formulation, Perseris.
- BioXcel’s BXCL501 performs the best clinically in Datamonitor Healthcare’s drug assessment model due to recent pivotal data exhibiting the drug’s superiority over placebo in treating agitation associated with schizophrenia. Treating severe agitation in an acute psychiatric setting is currently typically achieved through invasive administration of antipsychotics or benzodiazepines. This raises ethical dilemmas and, furthermore, these drugs and the doses utilized in this setting are often associated with heavy sedation, among other side effects. The safety and tolerability profile of BXCL501 presented in pivotal trials is comparable to placebo, with the only adverse event experienced to a notably greater degree than placebo being somnolence, which was generally experienced as mild. Accordingly, BioXcel plans to file an NDA submission with the FDA in Q1 2021.
- MIN-101 previously established efficacy in treating negative symptoms in a large, controlled Phase IIb trial. However, more recently, Minerva released Phase III trial results illustrating the drug’s failure to separate from placebo (placebo response was noted as particularly high) on the primary endpoint associated with schizophrenia negative symptoms. This raises uncertainty for the drug’s potential in this indication, which currently has no approved therapies. The company discussed combining the data with the robust Phase IIb data for a potential NDA submission, as previous companies have done. However, the minutes from Minerva’s Type C meeting with the FDA revealed the regulatory body advised Minerva that submitting these data would likely result in an unsuccessful filing. Nonetheless, Minerva seems intent on relying on subgroup analysis to demonstrate efficacy of the drug to the FDA, despite the regulatory body’s initial dissatisfaction with the proposed data. MIN-101 is a potential first-in-class sigma-2 receptor modulator, with research linking the antagonism of this receptor with antipsychotic properties. Moreover, the drug only further targets the 5-HT2A receptor, thus avoiding the direct binding of dopamine receptors which is linked to the troublesome extrapyramidal symptoms associated with the long-term use of dopaminergic antipsychotics.
- Although the current range of antipsychotics may provide some relief from positive symptoms in schizophrenia patients, there are still several large unmet needs that remain. Some of the greatest unmet needs include drugs targeting the negative and cognitive symptoms of schizophrenia, drugs with improved tolerability, therapies encouraging enhanced compliance rates, and more effective treatment options for refractory schizophrenia.
- Key upcoming events in the schizophrenia space include the paliperidone palmitate six-month formulation PDUFA deadline, expected in September 2021. If successful, Johnson & Johnson could see its highly lucrative Invega franchise pushed further above the LAI antipsychotic competition, with an unparalleled long-acting dosing regimen to support chronic schizophrenia patients with enhanced treatment outcomes. Alkermes’ ALKS 3831, a distinct formulation of olanzapine and the novel opioid receptor antagonist samidorphan, is due top-line data from a pivotal trial in young adults diagnosed with schizophrenia, schizophreniform, or bipolar I disorder in the first half of 2021. This drug is touted as a better tolerated formulation of the historical blockbuster antipsychotic olanzapine, reportedly inducing less weight gain in patients. Additionally, the company plans to resubmit supporting data in response to a complete response letter received from the FDA, and though this will likely come in 2021, precise timings have not been disclosed.
CONTENTS
7 OVERVIEW
9 DISEASE BACKGROUND
9 Definition
9 Patient segmentation
10 Risk factors
11 Diagnosis
12 TREATMENT
12 Pharmacological versus non-pharmacological therapy
12 Drug approaches
17 EPIDEMIOLOGY
17 Prevalence methodology
20 MARKETED DRUGS
32 PIPELINE DRUGS
42 KEY REGULATORY EVENTS
42 Blame It On COVID: Alkermes CRL Tied To Remote Site Inspections
42 Submission Of sNDA For Paliperidone Palmitate 6-Month To Treat Schizophrenia
42 Alkermes’ Antipsychotic Clears US FDA Panel Amid Calls For Broader Professional Education Plan
42 CHMP Recommends Paliperidone for Schizophrenia
44 PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS
45 LICENSING AND ASSET ACQUISITION DEALS
45 BI Finds Right Fit For Digital Therapeutic Partnership With Click
45 Autifony Regains Kv3 Modulator Program From BI
45 Reviva Merges With Tenzing For Approximately $119m
45 Neurocrine Takes Over Neuropsychiatric Assets From Takeda
46 Vanderbilt Gets $10m Up Front In Neurology Deal With Acadia
47 CLINICAL TRIAL LANDSCAPE
48 Sponsors by status
49 Sponsors by phase
50 Recent events
52 DRUG ASSESSMENT MODEL
52 Oral antipsychotics
53 LAI antipsychotics
53 Pipeline drugs
55 MARKET DYNAMICS
56 FUTURE TRENDS
56 Uptake of LAIs will flourish and drug developers will reap the rewards
56 Fresh uptake of atypicals will return the oral market to growth
57 Widespread genericization will erode numerous key brands’ market shares
58 CONSENSUS FORECASTS
60 RECENT EVENTS AND ANALYST OPINION
60 MIN-101 (Minerva) for Schizophrenia (December 1, 2020)
60 ALKS 3831 for Schizophrenia (October 9, 2020)
61 ALKS 3831 for Schizophrenia (October 7, 2020)
65 BI-425809 for Schizophrenia (September 14, 2020)
66 BXCL501 for Schizophrenia (July 20, 2020)
68 ALKS 3831 for Schizophrenia (May 31, 2020)
70 MIN-101 (Minerva) for Schizophrenia (May 29, 2020)
73 Basmisanil for Schizophrenia (December 31, 2019)
74 Nuplazid for Schizophrenia (November 25, 2019)
76 KarXT for Schizophrenia (November 18, 2019)
78 Geodon (Oral and IM) for Schizophrenia (September 6, 2019)
80 Caplyta for Schizophrenia (July 25, 2019)
81 Caplyta for Schizophrenia (July 23, 2019)
82 Nuplazid for Schizophrenia (July 22, 2019)
83 Multiple Drugs for Schizophrenia (June 25, 2019)
85 KEY UPCOMING EVENTS
86 KEY OPINION LEADER INSIGHTS
86 While patients may be slow to accept LAIs, KOLs would like to increase adoption
86 ALKS 3831 could be prescribed over olanzapine due to the reduced weight gain profile reported for the drug
86 Antipsychotics still fall short in various areas of schizophrenia treatment
87 UNMET NEEDS
87 Drugs that effectively treat the negative symptoms of schizophrenia
87 Drugs with enhanced tolerability profiles
87 Improved options for treatment-resistant schizophrenia
87 Treatments targeting the cognitive deficits associated with schizophrenia
87 Drugs that address non-compliance
89 BIBLIOGRAPHY
89 Prescription information
91 APPENDIX
LIST OF FIGURES
9 Figure 1: Summary of schizophrenia symptoms
11 Figure 2: Summary of schizophrenia diagnostic criteria
19 Figure 3: Trends in 12-month prevalent cases of schizophrenia, 2018–27
32 Figure 4: Overview of pipeline drugs for schizophrenia in the US
33 Figure 5: Pipeline drugs for schizophrenia, by company
33 Figure 6: Pipeline drugs for schizophrenia, by drug type
33 Figure 7: Pipeline drugs for schizophrenia, by classification
44 Figure 8: Probability of success in the schizophrenia pipeline
47 Figure 9: Clinical trials in schizophrenia
47 Figure 10: Top 10 drugs for clinical trials in schizophrenia
48 Figure 11: Top 10 companies for clinical trials in schizophrenia
48 Figure 12: Trial locations in schizophrenia
49 Figure 13: Schizophrenia trials status
50 Figure 14: Schizophrenia trials sponsors, by phase
52 Figure 15: Datamonitor Healthcare’s drug assessment summary for schizophrenia
55 Figure 16: Market dynamics in schizophrenia
56 Figure 17: Future trends in schizophrenia
66 Figure 18: BI-425809 for Schizophrenia (September 14, 2020): Phase II – 1346.9
68 Figure 19: BXCL501 for Schizophrenia (July 20, 2020): Phase III – SERENITY I, Phase III – SERENITY II
70 Figure 20: ALKS 3831 for Schizophrenia (May 31, 2020): Phase III – A306 (Long-Term Safety)
73 Figure 21: MIN-101 (Minerva) for Schizophrenia (May 29, 2020): Phase III – Negative Symptoms
74 Figure 22: Basmisanil for Schizophrenia (December 31, 2019): Phase IIb – BP39207
76 Figure 23: Nuplazid for Schizophrenia (November 25, 2019): Phase II – ADVANCE (Neg. Symptoms)
78 Figure 24: KarXT for Schizophrenia (November 18, 2019): Phase II – EMERGENT-1 (Psychosis; DSM-5)
80 Figure 25: Geodon (Oral and IM) for Schizophrenia (September 6, 2019): Phase III – Acute Exacerbation (Japan)
83 Figure 26: Nuplazid for Schizophrenia (July 22, 2019): Phase III – ENHANCE-1 (Inadequate)
85 Figure 27: Key upcoming events in schizophrenia
LIST OF TABLES
13 Table 1: Leading products for schizophrenia by class in the US, Japan, and five major European markets
15 Table 2: Key treatment guideline recommendations for schizophrenia
18 Table 3: 12-month prevalent cases of schizophrenia, 2018–27
21 Table 4: Marketed drugs for schizophrenia
35 Table 5: Pipeline drugs for schizophrenia in the US
58 Table 6: Historical global sales, by drug ($m), 2015–19
59 Table 7: Forecasted global sales, by drug ($m), 2020–24
60 Table 8: MIN-101 (Minerva) for Schizophrenia (December 1, 2020)
61 Table 9: ALKS 3831 for Schizophrenia (October 9, 2020)
62 Table 10: ALKS 3831 for Schizophrenia (October 7, 2020)
65 Table 11: BI-425809 for Schizophrenia (September 14, 2020)
67 Table 12: BXCL501 for Schizophrenia (July 20, 2020)
69 Table 13: ALKS 3831 for Schizophrenia (May 31, 2020)
71 Table 14: MIN-101 (Minerva) for Schizophrenia (May 29, 2020)
73 Table 15: Basmisanil for Schizophrenia (December 31, 2019)
75 Table 16: Nuplazid for Schizophrenia (November 25, 2019)
77 Table 17: KarXT for Schizophrenia (November 18, 2019)
79 Table 18: Geodon (Oral and IM) for Schizophrenia (September 6, 2019)
80 Table 19: Caplyta for Schizophrenia (July 25, 2019)
81 Table 20: Caplyta for Schizophrenia (July 23, 2019)
82 Table 21: Nuplazid for Schizophrenia (July 22, 2019)
84 Table 22: Multiple Drugs for Schizophrenia (June 25, 2019)