PharmaVitae explores Takeda’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29.

Snapshot

• Overview – Takeda’s growth continues to be driven primarily by M&A; adding Shire nearly doubles the revenues of the company.
• Key themes – [1] Integration of Shire assets and performance of rare disease portfolio are key near-term milestones [2] Takeda will then look to its pipeline, with multiple drugs projected to launch in the coming years to offset sales declines due to generic competition.

Model updates (29 October 2020)

• Entyvio forecast adjusted higher due to continued growth in ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease
• Dexilant forecast adjusted higher due to slower generic decline
• Ninlaro forecast adjusted higher due to COVID-19 impact on prescription trends
• Alunbrig forecast adjusted lower due to launch trends
• Immunoglobulin forecast adjusted higher.

Model updates (15 November 2019)

• Natpara forecast adjusted lower due to US product recall
• TAK-788 launch added
• TAK-721 launch added
• SHP-609 launch added
• ATK-924 launch added
• TAK-620 launch added
• TAK-003 launch added.

Model updates (5 September 2019)

• Entyvio forecast adjusted higher over the medium term due to continued market share gains in the treatment-naïve segment, but adjusted lower over the long term due to expiration of regulatory data protection
• Ninlaro forecast adjusted higher due to strong growth in the US
• Adcetris forecast adjusted higher due to performance in Japan and RoW, primarily Brazil
• Velcade forecast adjusted slightly lower due to loss of exclusivity in the US.

Added Shire drugs to Takeda forecast, including:

• Cinryze forecast adjusted significantly lower due to market share shifts to Takhzyro
• Firazyr forecast adjusted significantly lower due to market share shifts to Takhzyro
• Kalbitor
• Takhzyro forecast adjusted higher due to strong launch in US and Europe
• Xiidra forecast removed due to sale to Novartis for $3.4bn up front and $1.9bn in potential milestones
• Vyvanse
• Adderall XR
• Elaprase
• Replagal
• Vpriv
• Lialda
• Pentasa
• Gattex
• Natpara
• SHP616 (SQ) forecast removed due to Takeda stopping development
• Adynovate forecast added due to Takeda providing granular detail on Shire’s hematology portfolio
• FEIBA forecast added due to Takeda providing granular detail on Shire’s hematology portfolio
• Recombinate/Advate forecast added due to Takeda providing granular detail on Shire’s hematology portfolio
• Hemofil/Immunate forecast added due to Takeda providing granular detail on Shire’s hematology portfolio.